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Sunday, May 29, 2016

Real Interest Rates - India Vs Brazil

With the war of words raged by S.Swamy against RBI Governer R Rajan, I thought it will be interesting to see if R.Rajan has really done anything wrong. Below are two graphs - first representing the WPI Index and Inflation while second showing the Repo Rate.



As and when there has been increase in the the inflation there has been a equal/relative increase in the repo rate to curb the inflation. During 2008/2009 there was sharp reduction of interest rates because inflation was low and industry was in dire need of rate cuts.

Now though the inflation is within the comfortable limits but it has started to pick up (Jan'16-Mar'16) and it does help to cut rates too quickly to increase it later when situation is not as demanding as it was in 2008.

Brazil Case - In Brazil the economy is already undergoing recession but Central bank has decided to keep the interest rates high to curb inflation which is reducing the buying power of households. As it reads, inflation is near 10.5% while interest rates are kept at 14.25%.


Real Interest Rate

Real Interest Rate = Repo Rate - Inflation Rate

More is the difference between the Repo Rate, the more attractive deposits become and attracts more money to banks and further reducing liquidity in the market which can help to reduce inflation.

In case of Brazil it is close to 4% while in our case it is almost 1.5% which outlines how far our governor has gone to reduce the rates and help businesses which as per S.Swamy, has been ruined by him.

Has he(R.Rajan) gone too far since inflation already showing its heads up and rates could be increased soon to be back on track which will further make S.Sway unhappy?? only time will tell. 


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